Here is a very vibrant with a GREAT priest and 7 deacons and over 3000 families.
Over the last 3 years, they have only baptized 80 kids annually.
It has 7 elementary schools and 2 high schools of the OCSB connected to it.
Let’s look at their annual report:
a) the 7 year olds who were baptized 7 years ago number 200. But for the last 3years, baptisms are about 40% that rate. For confirmation, there were 140 – how many were baptized 12 years ago?? If 200, then there is large attrition. If if was 140 baptized, then we still have a huge drop in baptisms.
b) If only 20% of the babies baptized this year become active Catholic adults (optimistic), then we have a parish with 3000 families (over 10,000 people) having 16 new parishioners per year in 2040.
c) with 7 elementary schools in this parish area, we researched how many kids are in Grade 2 (1st communion year) vs how many received 1st communion? In 2019, there were 14 classes x 20 (conservative) for 280 kids. So about 30% are not Catholic, or are Catholic and did not receive the 2nd sacrament of initiation. This 30% number is actually lower than other areas (eg. St Anthony’s School in Ottawa has a majority non-Catholic kids)
The OCSB has “solved” their enrolllment problem by allowing kids with NO connection to the Catholic faith (even a step-parent’s baptism card stuffed in the attic) into schools with “space availability”. Currently, 100% of OCSB elementary schools have “space availability”. There is no way 80 baptized kids can fill 14 Grade Two classrooms in seven years time in 7 schools!
With the seeming demographic collapse in even strong vibrant parishes, what will the Archdiocese look like in 2030 or 2040?
How long before the province notices that “catholic” elementary schools only have 30% nominally Catholic kids? 2030? before?